daily forex analysis-market trend-technical news

[forexer]

Daily Forex Analysis

Weaker than expected Housing Market data hurts the USD
The German PPI is expected to confirm slowing inflationary pressures.
Market Trend

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Economic News

USD

The previous week was somewhat of a disappointment for those of us who expected the heavy economic calendar to be the trigger for the USD to break out of the range it has been trading at against its major counterparts for months. The lower than expected inflationary indicators readings were offset by hawkish Fed officials comments, and strong regional Fed survey's (i.e. Empire State survey and Philly Fed survey) were offset by the weak housing market data. This has brought us by the end of the week to about the same prices we have opened it at - 1.2830 vs. the EUR, 117.70 vs. the yen, with the only exception being the GBP, which lost ground against the USD out of its own weakness rather than USD strength.

Although the NAHB Housing Market index, which measures the sentiment among builders, reported a stronger sentiment over the past month, The sharp drop in Housing Starts (1.486mln vs. f/c 1.7mln) and applications for Building Permits (1.535mln vs. f/c 1.61) suggested otherwise and sent the USD relinquishing all the gains it had made a day earlier. The state of the housing sector is regarded as a gauge for the state of the economy, and it also stands in high correlation with economic growth, hence its importance.

This week's US economic calendar is pretty light on releases, with the only data coming is today's LEI (Leading Economic Indicators) for the month of October. The index is expected to rise 0.3%, following a 0.1% rise the previous month. Unless there is a significant surprise in either direction, We are not expecting the release to have a considerable impact on the markets, and while the USD still has some room to depreciate further against its major counterparts, we believe that gains are capped below 1.29 vs. the EUR, 117.00 vs. the JPY and 1.9100 vs. the GBP.

EUR

Like the US, Europe reported lower inflation over the past week and together with the weaker Q2 GDP growth and lower ZEW economic sentiment, there was really no good reason for the EUR to continue climbing. However, the fact that the European Central Bank remains committed to their plan to raise interest rates once more early next month provides support for the EUR.

This week's EZ economic calendar opens with today's German Producer Price Index (f/c -0.1% MoM, 4.3% YoY). The PPI is a leading inflationary gauge, measuring the costs increase from the supply side perspective. A lower than expected figure will suggest a further deceleration of inflation. Nevertheless, we are not expecting the EUR to sell-off even in such a case because any decrease in PPI is mainly credited to the falling energy costs, rather than decreasing demand. Furthermore, the ECB seems determined with its December rate hike, and markets do not anticipate a lower PPI to make it change its mind.

JPY

There were a lot of talks ahead of this weekend's G20 meeting, expecting everybody (Politicians and Central Bankers) to once again reiterate the stance that the current JPY exchange rate is too low, and that its price should reflect the current Japanese economic conditions. It seems, however, that this hasn't been the case, and the JPY traded slightly lower during the Japanese Session overnight, trading at 117.90 vs. the USD, 223.36 vs. the GBP and 151.38 against the EUR.

There are no releases coming from Japan today, and given the light economic calendars elsewhere, we believe the range bound trading characterizing the JPY over the last week will carry on, with sentiment weighing a little bit more in favor of the JPY.
Technical News

EUR/USD

A volatile session on Friday saw both ends of the recent daily range taken out. Daily studies show mixed signals, while the momentum remains positive and the primary trend is up. 1.2745 is the key support and buying on dips towards this level could be preferable. Hourlies are very close to overbought levels.

GBP/USD

A failed attempt overnight to trigger a sell-off below Wednesday's 1.8840 low resulted in a sharp rally back towards the Nov 15 high, and 38.2% Fibonacci at 1.8970. Dailies are stalled at mid-range. Hourlies are slightly overbought with strong bullish indication. Target price is 1.8985.

USD/JPY

The price for the pair remains within the 118.60-117.10 range that has dominated the last two weeks. Daily studies dwell in neutral territory, but the 4 hours oscillators indicate that a move up might be close. Support level is 117.45 and could be a good entry point for a long run buy. At the moment range trade appears to be the right move.

USD/CHF

A volatile session on Friday saw trend line resistance breached on the rise to 1.2540, followed by trend support tested on the dip to1.2425. Daily studies show mixed signals at neutral levels, while the hourlies are oversold. Selling a bounce above 1.2500, as the hourlies unwind could be the way to go.
The Wild Card

EUR/GBP

Thursday's high, just shy of 0.6800 looks like a very strong top, as the overbought daily studies edge lower, with the stochastic showing a fresh bearish cross. Traders should pay attention to this level as it presents an excellent entry point for a long run selling position.

[forexer]

Daily Forex Analysis

Weaker than expected Housing Market data hurts the USD
The German PPI is expected to confirm slowing inflationary pressures.



Economic News

USD

The markets are already going into holiday mode as trading begins to slow. The US dollar rebounded after an upward revision to October leading indicators. The strong rally in the stock market is fueling euphoria by keeping consumers happy despite an uncertain economic outlook. With little on the US economic calendar this week, we turn our focus to the Christmas shopping season. Retailers have begun to target consumers far earlier this year than they have in the past and according to the latest Gallup poll conducted last week. Consumers expect to spend more money than ever this season. The November 9-12 national Gallup poll indicated that 34 percent of adults think that they will spend at least 00 on gifts. This is the strongest sentiment that we have seen for that period of time in at least 4 years. Between 2002 and 2005, only 25 to 30 percent of the people polled expected to spend that much. Average expenditure expected last week was also the highest reading for the week since 2000. Black Friday, which is the Friday after thanksgiving, will shed more light on how well retailers may do at the end of the year. If spending is strong, it would relieve some of last week's concerns as it suggests that the slowdown in the housing market has yet to have a significant toll on the consumer and that we could actually see an increase in retail sales after two back to back months of negative readings. However for the time being, carry trades remain in favor as the market looks ahead to another week of low volatility and range bound trading.

EUR

The Euro retraced earlier gains after yesterday's US trading session. Traders have shrugged off firmer German producer price reports and hawkish comments from ECB officials this weekend. ECB President Trichet repeated his hawkish stance while colleague Garganas supported him by saying that the ECB maintains "extreme vigilance". They were both optimistic on the outlook for growth and confirmed the central bank's plan is to raise interest rates early December. We do want to point out that Garganas also repeated Trichet's comments that it is too early to talk about their plans for monetary policy next year. This suggests that the central bank President will probably be taming down his comments on December 7th, which would be construed as bearish for the currency. The odds of this happening are even greater if the EUR/USD hovers around 1.2850-1.2950 at that time. Trichet's comments have often marked a peak in the EUR so it would not be surprising to see it do the same this time as well. Today we are expecting French GDP. The strong Euro is expected to keep French growth frozen in the third quarter, which would confirm weakness that we have already been seeing in the Euro-zone's second largest country. Meanwhile Switzerland will also be releasing their October trade balance. The surplus is forecasted to shrink after the record balance hit in the month of September. However another strong print, which would not be out of question given the recent weakness in the Swiss Franc, could fuel gains for the currency. There is a strong feeling that volatility will not be the name of the game today, and so traders are advised to look for technical analysis as their main trading tool for today's session.

JPY

The JPY lost most of Friday's gains as traders struggle to figure out where the currency is headed. The lack of critical comments about the JPY at the G20 meeting this weekend gave some traders the confidence to get into short JPY carry trades. In fact, the Japanese government continued to talk down the yen with the Japanese Finance Minister saying that the exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals and be determined by the market. The Vice Finance Minister even added that they are not concerned about the unwinding of carry trades. This free market approach suggests that the government still favors a weak JPY and as such, this gives a green light for carry trades to remain intact at least until the Thanksgiving holiday. The Bank of Japan will be releasing the minutes from their October monetary policy meeting tonight. No surprises are expected as monetary policy members unanimously vote to leave interest rates unchanged.
Technical News

EUR/USD

The 1.2750/1.2900 range that was initiated on Nov 9th continues to dominate. The daily uptrend begun on Oct 13 remains nominally intact unless there is a daily close below 1.2750, so buying on dips on that zone is might be a favorite. Dailies are top-heavy and need a 1.2900 breakout to resume buys. Hourlies are back at neutral levels.

GBP/USD

Daily studies show mixed signals supported by the uncertainty of very neutral hourlies. The 20-day MA at 1.8995 in the GBP/USD is key resistance and a break above 1.9000 targets 1.9150, which is the 61.8 Fibonacci of the 191.75/1.8835 move.

USD/JPY

The 117.10/118.60 range continues to be strong, as it has for over two weeks, leaving the daily studies showing mixed signals in neutral territory, which suggests that a trending move is close. 117.50 is shaping up as the initial support and the 117.50/118.60 range remains preferable for today.

USD/CHF

The uptrend of the Nov 10 low was broken with a hit beyond the 61.8% of the 1.2540/1.2395 slide and prior hourly support. Daily studies are edging slowly higher at mid levels, but momentum is heading lower and the hourlies are winding down from overbought levels.
The Wild Card

CAD/CHF

This pair has set on major key support levels of 1.0830 for the last 3 months, technical studies shows RSI at 12 and momentum at 97.6842 with a strong signal for a reversal in a from of a doji shape on the 1 day chart interval. These levels could be a strong entry point for a long range buy with tight stops.

[forexer]

Daily Forex Analysis

The USD downside seems limited towards the upcoming holiday.

Economic News

USD

The economic calendar was pretty much dull on Tuesday and therefore the USD movement against the other majors was mainly triggered by the hawkish comments made by the Fed official Kevin Warsh at the NYSE and the increasing oil prices. Warsh stated that inflation was still too high which came as a surprise as only last week the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped by 0.20%. This comment may prompt some market participants to start looking forward for another rate hike by next year, but with core inflation not being high enough and with the GDP expected only to grow by 2.9% in 2007 (compared to 3.1% in 2006), a rate increase is unlikely to happen. In fact, the Fed will most likely leave its rates on hold or even lower them next year which might cause a USD sell off against higher yielding currencies. Meanwhile, the oil prices reached back above 60$ a barrel due to a reduction in shipping supply caused by bad weather in Alaska. The concern is that if oil prices continue to climb, it could decrease the high spending expected by consumers this upcoming holiday season. Therefore, if the consumers do not spend enough this Christmas, the Q4 GDP will continue to show low figures which will most likely cause a further USD depreciation. A brighter light will be shed on the expected consumers shopping habits this Christmas when "Black Friday" this weekend kicks off holiday shopping season. Two reports are expected to be published today before traders leave early for Thanksgiving holiday. The first will be the U.S Jobless claims report (13:30 GMT) which is expected to rise from 308K to 310K. An unexpected increase from 310K could be perceived as a weak sentiment to the USD and lead to some USD sell off. Secondly, the U.S university of Michigan survey for November (15:00 GMT) is expected to rise from 92.3 to 93.3 which will probably give the USD some mild support but will probably not break the thin ranges the USD is traded at. The US session ended with the USD declining against the EUR (1.2865) and JPY (117.55).

EUR

The EUR appreciated against the USD on Tuesday due to the hawkish comments made by ECB president Trichet at the central banker's seminar in Australia. Trichet stated that the European growth remains strong despite the 0% GDP growth in France which brought the annualized pace of growth from 2.6% to 1.6%. This weak figure alongside the Italian disappointing industrial orders falling more than expected and the trade deficit in Italy increasing in the month of September, had no significant impact on the currency. However, weak data coming from the Eurozone countries raises the possibility that the European Central Bank will halt hiking its interest rates after the fully priced in December rate hike. The only reports expected to be published today from the Eurozone will be the Eurozone Industrial new orders Y/Y for Sep' (10:00 GMT) which is expected to drop from 14.30% to 10.40% and the Industrial new orders M/M (10:00 GMT) which is estimated to decline from 3.7% to -2.4%. We do not believe this data will have a major impact on the market as we predict the market to be quiet today due to the upcoming holiday.

JPY

The JPY was stronger on Tuesday against the high carry currencies after Bank of Japan's Muto stated that he would not rule out a rate hike anytime even in this upcoming December. However, the minutes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) last meeting held in12-13 of October suggest that the bank's plans are to raise interest rates only gradually. Therefore, the JPY will remain under pressure today with investors most likely selling the low yielding JPY against higher yielding currencies such as the USD, EUR, and GBP.
Technical News

EUR/USD

The medium resistance around 1.2840 got breached last night only to be stopped around the 1.2870 levels. (Stronger then the first one) Momentum indicators hint for a correction, to be confirmed with RSI at overbought levels. Range trading is still in play, as trading volume is likely to decrees towards the end of the day. (Market holiday)

GBP/USD

The next resistance for the pair lays at 1.9080 after getting through the one at 1.9030. The intraday indicators studying for consolidation for the uptrend with high possibility for extension towards the resistance we just mentioned.

USD/JPY

The pair gave up Monday's gains and remained in an inside range, and sideways trading is favored for the rest of the week. Breaking the 117.35 support will cause a stronger sell-off towards the 116.85 next resistances. It's important to notice that most Oscillators are mixed at the moment.

USD/CHF

The pair is heading towards support levels at 1.2355 after a breakdown of 60 pips yesterday; daily RSI levels are at 40 indicating a possible range trading in the next couple of days with an intention to continue the down trend.
The Wild Card

CAD/CHF

This pair is still sits on major key support levels of 1.0820, technical studies shows RSI at 15 and momentum at 97.6837 where next support level is at 1.0780. Which forms a clear shape of a double bottom with a new low record of the past 16 weeks.

[forexer]

Daily Forex Analysis

A USD sell-off on a thin pre-holiday market- Majors are basing at current levels.
Euro Zone current Account and German IFO, 1.2980 is next.




Economic News

USD

The US dollar was mixed against major currencies in thin, narrow range trading with the US and Japanese markets closed for public holidays. The dollar is consolidating after its sharp falls from yesterday, which had started before any US data was released. Indeed, Initial Jobless Claims have risen to 317K, against forecasts for a 310K, and the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer confidence was downwardly revised to 92.1 against expectations for a 93.1 reading, but we have seen much worse downside surprises not generating such a sell-off. Furthermore, taking into consideration the thin liquidity usually characterizing the days before holidays, the USD sell-off seems, to say the least, a little awkward.

Be that is it may, we believe the jury won't come out with the verdict on the USD at least till Monday, when most US and Japanese investors return from their holiday extended weekend. Till then, the USD pairs might try to base at their current levels. It is possible that we'll see US dollar short positions build when trading picks up, as rate hikes are expected in the Euro-zone as well as in Japan. However, 1.30 (vs, the EUR) is a rather heavy barrier, which had already made the pair reverse 3 times in the past 7 months, and any re-positioning at current levels should be carefully reconsidered.

More insight into the dollar's near-term direction will be provided with the release of several US data next week including durable goods and existing home sales for October and the preliminary third-quarter GDP data.

EUR

Factory Orders in Europe fell 1.3% on September, a little better than the 2% drop expected, yet YoY, the Factory orders have risen only 7.6%, significantly lower than the 10.4% increase. This is certainly not to explain the EUR/USD rally yesterday which derived mainly from dollar weakness. The fact the EUR lost over 30 pips against the JPY and was slightly changed to the downside against the GBP indicates that nothing fundamental happened in the EZ economy. Germany's Q3 GDP rose 0.6%, down from the prior 0.9% and in line with expectations. The figure coming from Europe's largest economy this morning indicates that the EZ economy is cooling down as well, and while there is no doubt that the European Central Bank will raise its borrowing rates on December, it puts in question the future of the monetary tightening cycle conducted by the ECB.

The GBP rose the most in the last two months against the dollar to 1.9139, on speculation that the Bank of England policy makers will keep raising interest rates into next year after the release of minutes from the BOE yesterday. Investors are predicting the BOE will lift the benchmark rate to 5.25 percent in February from the present 5 percent. Today's trade is expected to remain relatively calm, in spite of the releases scheduled for today- EZ Current Account, IFO Business Climate and GB Gross Domestic Product. We are expecting the EUR and GBP to base at their current levels, with possible risks for both sides.

JPY

The USD/JPY opened in Asia around 116.65 after plunging lower yesterday when the USD broadly weakened and rumors spread that the Ministry of Finance told exporters to buy the JPY, And than edged higher to 116.82 in early Asia. Massive selling of the pair occurred and it fell back to 116.61 where it sat for the balance of the Tokyo-holiday-affected session.

There are distinctly different assessments of the USD/JPY fall yesterday by analysts. Some feel that this is the start of a trend that will see the JPY strengthen against the majors as the huge build up of JPY carry trades are pared back ahead for year-end. Others feel that the move yesterday was corrective and the environment that contributed to JPY weakness hasn't changed. All eyes are set for next week to resolve the JPY issue at the end of the holiday.
Technical News

EUR/USD

The pair broke above the 1.2910 and 1.2938 barriers yesterday, leaving 1.2980 the final frontier before the psychological 1.30 frontier is breeched. Oscillators are bullish, though we can't say for sure that the Stochastics is not producing a divergence. Risk/Reward ratio is too high to place a trade, but in case we close above 1.30, we can surely expect 1.35 in a month period.

GBP/USD

The pair is basing around 1.9140 region, after yesterday's strong rally to 1.9165, just a little shy of the 1.9177 early November high. Oscillators are bullish on the daily and not overbought, and if we pass through the 1.9177, a level in which we haven't been above for almost 2 years, 1.9330 and 1.9420 are next.

USD/JPY

The Tight 117.20-118.40 range had been breeched to the downside yesterday, with the 200 days MA lying at 116.20 being the real test whether we are in a new downtrend. Oscillators are bearish yet not over sold, and favor the downside..

USD/CHF

USD/CHF is in a downtrend with daily oscillators being very bullish. 1.2190 is next, and it held firmly 3 times over the past year. It is unlikely, however, that thee pair will carry on today without basing at its current levels.
The Wild Card

CAD/CHF

It is worth paying attention to the CAD/JPY. On the hourly charts it seems that after establishing a lower low with price action, a bullish divergence is starting to build on all major oscillators. If indeed a bottom is formed, a long trade might worth around 60 pips.

[forexer]

Daily Forex Analysis

    * A USD sell-off on a thin pre-holiday market- Majors are basing at current levels.
    * Euro Zone current Account and German IFO, 1.2980 is next.


Economic News

USD



EUR/USD

The pair broke above the 1.2910 and 1.2938 barriers yesterday, leaving 1.2980 the final before the psychological 1.30 frontier is breeched. Oscillators are bullish, though we can't say for sure that the Stochastics is not producing a divergence. Risk/Reward ratio is too high to place a trade, but in case we close above 1.30, we can surely expect 1.35 in a one month time.

GBP/USD

The pair is basing around the 1.9140 region, after yesterday's strong rally to 1.9165, just a little shy of the 1.9177 early November high. Oscillators are bullish on the daily and not overbought, and if we pass through the 1.9177, a level in which we haven't been above for almost 2 years, 1.9330 and 1.9420 are next.

USD/JPY

The tight 117.20-118.40 range had been breeched to the downside yesterday, with the 200 days MA lying at 116.20 being the real test whether we are in a new downtrend. Oscillators are bearish yet not over sold, and favor the downside..

USD/CHF

USD/CHF is in a downtrend with daily oscillators being very bullish. 1.2190 is next, and it held firmly 3 times over the past year. It is unlikely, however, that the pair will carry on today without basing at its current levels.
The Wild Card

CAD/CHF

It is worth paying attention to the CAD/JPY. On the hourly charts it seems that after establishing a lower low with price action, a bullish divergence is starting to build on all major oscillators. If indeed a bottom is formed, a long trade might worth around 60 pips.

[forexer]

Daily Forex Analysis

Massive USD sell-off all across the board, EUR and GBP climb higher.
Market Trend

Technical News

EUR/USD

The pair surged in very early Asian trading to test 1.3180, and ended the session at 1.3115. Daily studies remain bullish, though overbought levels are starting to signal. The trend is strong and the overall bias is up. Looking to set longs on a dip towards 1.3100 might be preferable.

GBP/USD

The pair peaked at 1.9440 overnight and is now calming down to the 1.9360 zone. Daily studies head higher, with room to extend and the hourlies are at neutral levels. The general view for the pair is bullish with target price of 1.9450 again.

USD/JPY

The daily downtrend plunged toward the Sep 5 swing low at 115.55 overnight and It continued in Asia this morning. Daily studies remain bearish, with room to run before oversold levels are a concern. Hourlies are in neutral territory, which supports the notion that the target is the 61.8% Fibonacci at 113.20.

USD/CHF

Major daily range support at 1.2185 gave way overnight and the move extended to 1.2020 in very early Asian trading. Daily studies are bearish, though at oversold levels, which is normal in a strong trending market. The pair heads lower, but the highly oversold hourly studies are unwinding and favor selling strength over breaks.
The Wild Card

AUD/CHF

This pair has dropped 390 pips in the last 2 weeks giving traders much more room for another big dropdown, since the CHF appears to be very robust all across the board while the AUD has not yet established a major breakout against the USD in spite of the greenback weakness. The main target appears to be 0.9240 where major key resistance is set on.

[forexer]

Daily Forex Analysis

 The Dollar sell off continues - Will Brenanke intervene?

Technical News

EUR/USD

Gaps are said to close themselves, and this is what actually happened yesterday with this pair. Daily oscillators indicate overbought condition, but in case a strong trend develops they may spend quite some time in such levels. After yesterday's basing above 1.31 we are expecting a continuation of the rally to 1.35.

GBP/USD

The pair is basing near the 138.2% 1.8513-1.1917 move extension, with both daily and intra-day oscillators bullish. The overbought condition they're at are less severe than they are in the EURUSD, and all fast/medium speed MA's are facing up in a very sharp angle. The upside to the 161.8% extension at 1.9577 currently seems more likely.

USD/JPY

The 116 support has been retested once again last night as the pair traded around 115.90 for few hours, quickly to retrace back to 116.10 levels. At the moment, the hourly momentum indicators are pretty mixed but with the 200 day MA already breached to the downside and capping current JPY losses, we believe the downside is more likely.

USD/CHF

The trend for the pair is significantly down as all indicators (hourly and daily) are bearish. A better look into the RSI showing some oversold signals, but we believe , as we have stated above that when a strong trend develops, oscillates can hover at this region for quite a while.
The Wild Card

AUD/JPY

After the pair faced heavy resistance at the year's high, 91.18, earlier this month, a negative divergence has been produced on the daily charts, one that in our opinion has not been extracted to its full extent yet. However, daily oscillators are still bullish, and any shorts should be placed cautiously. Our 1st target is the 76.4% retracement of the last 82.5-91.19 move, at 89.05.

[forexer]

Daily Forex Analysis


 The Dollar sell off continues - Will traders see a break?


Technical News

EUR/USD

Euro in continuing its strengthening it has broken most of critical resistance levels (1.3050, 1.3120, and 1.3150). The daily trend is up the question is when it will break the 1.3200 resistance.

GBP/USD

Traders expected a correction in the GBP but unfortunately, it continued to strengthen. Most traders proved false. The GBP took over a harsh resistance at 1.9450. The GBP Is getting close to risky area. A retrenchment may occur after the GBP will reach a critical point 1.9550.

USD/JPY

The pair is continuing to move in a narrow channel between 116.40 to 116.70. The daily trend is down so far. A break of a resistance at 116.50 may lead to a bullish sentiment, which may reach towards the 117.35.

USD/CHF

CHF moves in a channel toward down trend between1.2020s resistance level and 1.1960s support level. Traders are matching a strong resistance at 1.2150 such resistance may be broken by good economic data from the U.S, data may send price higher than1.2150. Recommendation strategy stays neutral.
The Wild Card

GBP/CHF

This pair is rebounding from two weeks profit taking and the CHF is appreciating all across the board. technical studies show that daily RSI levels are just above 40 and a reversal trend suggesting another test of the 2.3800 levels when first resistance key is at 2.3600.

[freesignal]

Daily Forex Analysis

Technical News

EUR/USD

After producing a negative divergence on the hourly, the pair retraced 61.8% of the 1.3084-1.3215 move and found support at 1.3136. We believe the downside potential of divergence has been extracted, and we are ready to move on. Hourly oscillators are on the bullish; dailies are mildly overbought, but can remain at such levels when a strong uptrend develops.

GBP/USD

The daily trend seems to be ranging between resistance levels (1.9580) and support level (1.9450), two hour indicators show that RSI and momentum are bullish therefore we might see a break to the next resistance levels.

USD/JPY

The pair is trading in a 100 pip range for already 4 days with hourly RSI and MACD in no man's land. Although daily oscillators are bearish there is a 1-2-3-4-5-a-b-c pattern extending from May 17th's low with the last 119.72-115.41 move erasing 38.2% of the move. The pair seems to find strong support at this area and we currently believe the risk reward ratio in the JPY is not worth placing a trade.

USD/CHF

The pair is ranging inside a 100 pip horizontal channel with support at 1.2011 and resistance at 1.2112 levels. Two hour stochastic slow indicator shows a possible crossover below 10 that might push the pair into reversal.
The Wild Card

NZD/JPY

This pair is ranging inside a short horizontal tunnel between 79.00 and 77.50 technical studies shows a possible reversal from 78.95 with good opportunity to sell a bulk and keep short stops.
Indicators

[forexer]

Daily Forex Analysis


Technical News

EUR/USD

It seems like anything we'll say is worthless as the pair determined to test the 1.36 levels. So the next resistance to be tested is the 1.3300 level, though all technical indicators are signaling for some correction. We would recommend being very careful today as the bullish trend seems somewhat limited.

GBP/USD

The rally continues! The next resistance lays at 1.9770 but as we have seen in previous days, the bullish trend is so powerful and violent we won't be surprise if the 1.9770 will soon be history. The last time the pair traded at those levels was back in 92 when George Soros bet against the Sterling dropping from 2.00 levels down to 1.55.

USD/JPY

The pair is trading side ways with the 50 and 100 days MA soon to break above the 116.00 level. Hourly RSI is facing up toward overbought levels but with further chances to expand, while the daily trend is still very bearish.

USD/CHF

The pair reached major support at 1.1953 unable to breach it just yet. The down trend is likely to continue as long the resistance at 1.2020 will hold. Basing above here would cause an earlier reversal towards 1.2050 at least and later back towards the 1.2090.
The Wild Card

AUD/JPY

The mega resistance at 91.35 (5 Dec' 05) got breached yesterday, opening a wider pattern for appreciation. The bullish trend started back in July 06 and next resistance waiting for the pair is from 1997 (0.99). The future uptrend seems very reliable at the moment.

[forexer]

Daily Forex Analysis


Technical News

EUR/USD

The pair is staling at the 1.3310 zone which appears to be a strong support for today, after reaching a march 14th 2006 high on Friday. All studies show major overbought signals, but that will probably not interrupt the pair's further increase into the 1.3450 levels.

GBP/USD

All studies show that the raging bull market will continue in the long run, thus making short range trading irrelevant for the pair. All eyes are on the historical 2.000, which if broken will probably trigger an acute control through interest rates to calm the movement down.

USD/JPY

Overnight momentary high of 115.80 was breached before the pair returned to its ongoing downtrend. Price is now consolidating around the 115.00 levels with strong bearish signals on hourlies and dailies, indicating that the downtrend will probably continue.

USD/CHF

Although the very strong downtrend continues uninterrupted, the 1.1900 seems to be a very strong support at the moment. Once that barrier is broken, further decrease to the 1.1700 levels is bound to occur.


AUD/USD

The uptrend for the pair appears to be very strong, and it has established a very interesting dip on the 0.7860 levels. On the long run it appears to very a very good entry point, as the pair's bullish signal are very strong on every level.

[forexer]

Daily Forex Analysis$


Technical News

EUR/USD

While the trend remains very bullish, the 4 hours chart indicate a negative divergence on both MACD and RSI, signaling a correction might take place in a matter of days. Hourly Bollinger Bands are tight and form the uptrend, and after the pair based itself at the 1.33 region we are expecting the pair to trade in a wider range today, favoring the upside. However, given the aforementioned divergence and not being able to time the correction we recommend cautious longs, preparing to add to on deeps.

GBP/USD

The daily chart remains very bullish with oscillators indicating overbought condition, while on the intra day charts here too a negative divergence is being formed. Hourly Bollinger Bands are very tight and the risk is for the down side, with the significant 2.00 psychological resistance level in the horizon is very high. We recommend taking a break with current pair's long position, but definitely not shorting it.

USD/JPY

A 5-3 wave pattern is well recognized on the daily charts, with the recent dive from 118.5 being the C wave. Although another squeeze to 114.50 50% 109.27-119.80 retracement is possible a bullish divergence on the 4H chart suggest other wise. Given the absolute weakness of both currencies, risk reward ratio remains to trade the pair.

USD/CHF

As with all other USD pairs, here too the dollar's downtrend remains intact on the daily charts, while intraday charts indicate an impending correction. Hourly MACD is flat and just a thread below zero while producing a bullish divergence, suggesting this might be the time to take profit and waiting for a retracement in order to reposition.


CHFJPY

Top after top, the pair has managed to establish a few years high at 96.96. While the uptrend definitely remains intact, a negative divergence on the 4h chart sent the pair lower. Furthermore, a close above 21 BB established with that top indicates the pair is more likely to make its way to the opposite band at the 96.00 region, were the 55 EMA support lies. In case this support is being violated, next support lies at 95.67, the 61.8% 93.55-96.67 move retracement. Any shorts should be placed cautiously and with tight s/l.

[forexer]

Daily Forex Analysis


Technical News

EUR/USD

The pair continued to base above 1.33 during yesterday's trade after testing the 1.3090-13368 76.4% retracement support at the 1.3290 area. Hourly MACD is still flat at 0, and even though Slow Stochastics and RSI are on the positive, the divergence we mentioned yesterday has not come into fulfillment yet, thus leaving risks for a downside correction. While the uptrend remains unthreatened we believe there still might be a chance to go long on deeps. Bear in mind though that any 1H Stochastichs' rise above 86.74, MACD above 0.003 and RSI above 76.78 cancels the divergence altogether and reinitiate pair's climbs.

GBP/USD

The pair has found support t the 1.9425-1.9844 move 61.8% retracement at 1.9686. During strong uptrends intra day negative divergences can be settled with minimal retracements and though this might be the case it would still be wise to be cautious with new longs. Hourly oscillators are on the bearish and the way we see even if the downside will turn to be the theme today, the pair should find support at the 1.9640 level, which is also a great place to consider new longs.

USD/JPY

Yesterday we pointed the 109.27-119.8 50% retracement as an interim target due to an Elliott wave pattern and indeed the pair has reached that level. Although the medium term uptrend will not be violated before 113.22 we see a stronger possibility to the upside now but due to the absolute weakness of both currencies we would prefer to allocate a smaller portion of the portfolio to this pair.

USD/CHF

The USD halted its sell off against the CHF at 1.19, a level it hasn't visited below in since April 2005 and that is also May's 2006 support. Because the 4H chart's ocillators produces divergences on all 3 major oscillators, we do not believe the pair would be able to break this resistance without retracing first to 1.2047 or even 1.2139. Given the significant resistance level the pair is facing, it is possible to place tiny longs with stops not to far away below 1.90.

EUR/JPY

The pair has just crosses the 200 MA on the 1H chart, suggesting the correction of the 150.32-154.17 should continue with the interim target being 152.20, which is the 50% retracement of the move. The ocillators, which are on the bearish reinforces this view.

[forexer]

Daily Forex Analysis


Technical News

EUR/USD

Most indicators are pointing for the bullish trend to continue. Yesterday, the slight correction lower wasn't significant and even supports the next move up, taking RSI and Stochastic back to normal levels creating a nice path to expand. The next target will be the 1.3400 with chances for 1.3500 towards the end of this week. We would recommend being very picky when deciding to sell the pair and wait for a clear sign of correction/ retracement.

GBP/USD

Yesterday ,The 1.9630 support held though we are still under the down trend line established on December 1st. in order to breach this pattern, the pair will have to move above the 1.9747/8 resistance. However, correction might be in play as the pair still hasn't reached the 38.2% Fibo support around the 1.9590 levels.

USD/JPY

The pair couldn't break the 114.50 support, proving how significant it is. The failure opened the way for a 80 pips retracement, back to 115.30 levels. We believe that there will be another attempt to break the 114.50 later today with chances for further downside expansion.

USD/CHF

There is no doubt that this is THE pair out of the 4 majors for the last two weeks. The chart is very clear and easy to understand as it can be traded within a range of 100 pips - breaking up the 1.1980 resistance or moving further down underneath the 1.1880 support. We have the impression to believe that the down trend is still in play although indicators are consolidating towards oversold levels.


CHF/JPY

Classic flag formation is developing in the last few days suggesting a strong outbreak any time soon. Most indicators are supporting this format, pointing up towards new highs. Next resistance lays at 100 which is not so outrageous after checking the performance of the pair over the last 5 years. First resistance to confirm this scenario will be 97.00 .